Leverage

2x / 3x ETF Position Sizer

With leveraged ETFs, more is not better — you size the maximum position you can survive first. Most people lose on leverage not because they got direction wrong, but because the position was too large: one deep drawdown forces them out at the bottom. This tool draws that ceiling two ways: the age rule (intuitive — age as a proxy for risk capacity) and Quarter-Kelly (mathematically optimal, taken at a conservative quarter of full Kelly).You get both numbers — take the smaller one.

35
Formula (age rule)

position = (110 − age) / 100 × risk multiplier. Risk multiplier: conservative 0.5, neutral 1.0, aggressive 1.5. Intuitive, but ignores the instrument's own volatility decay.

Suggested allocation
75.0%
into TQQQ
TQQQ position
$75,000
Cash / Treasuries
$25,000
⚠️ Volatility-decay warning
For TQQQ (3x), annualized volatility decay is roughly 18.75% — even if the underlying goes sideways, you "naturally lose" about that much per year. Expected annualized return is about 17.3%, but annualized volatility runs 75% — maximum drawdowns can exceed 50%.
Further reading

Want the derivation and the evidence behind these formulas?

ProfitVision LAB has a full leveraged-ETF series with historical backtests.

Read the leveraged ETF series →

This tool is for education only; its output is not investment advice. Assess your own risk tolerance before investing.